Racing Clubs Late Mail – Weekend Racing 19th Nov
The Race Club’s Saturday Racing November 20 Kembla Grange Preview: Dawn’s Passage To Victory In The Gong
“FROM A MAP PERSPECTIVE, HE REALLY WILL BE AFFORDED EVERY OPPORTUNITY TO RUN A RACE.”
Current rating a Soft 6, and with rain forecast at the time of writing leading in and on the day, we have to expect the track is moving toward the Heavy range.
I’d suggest runners are getting well off the rail entering the straight and have given substantial rating edge to those with exposed wet form.
#5 LORD DESANIMAUX (13.00)
Race 2, 1600m
They haven’t stretched Lord Desanimaux (in below tweet) past 2000m this prep, which I like and am in favour of him dropping from 1800m to 1600m Saturday.
Strong Highway winner two back before running on in top race figures in a race not run to suit.
The low draw allows him to sit a little closer, and as I expect them to get off the rail, he should get his chance to finish off again.
#8 DAWN PASSAGE (18.00, 5.00)
Race 8, 1600m
This is a competitive field and how the track is holding up will be key to multiple chances. Last year’s Gong runner-up, Dawn Passage intrigues with a different lead up this time in.
Forget last start in The Hunter, where he raced tight and wasn’t overly taxed late. There was merit in his return in The Classique Legend Stakes to say he’d come back well. Blinkers added a positive as us the step up in trip. From a map perspective, he really will be afforded every opportunity to run a race.
Reloaded (31.00) is the other runner at odds that I could most certainly entertain. Should have won the Shannon Stakes before yet another forgive run in the Epsom. Not too perturbed by his wet stats unless it’s absolutely bottomless.
#3 HIGH COURT (31.50, 7.50)
Race 4, 1600m
High Court is no world beater but here on the quick back up and has been very consistent this prep.
A little bit of a lazy ride likely cost him a placing last start, with the winner extending early off slack fractions.
From a map perspective, he sets up extremely well and given the query on his opponents today, I’m happy to back him each way.
Chris Munce, Toby Edmonds & Simon Zahra’s Saturday Racing November 20 Sunshine Coast & Ballarat Stable Mail
The trio will share just one of their Best Bets here, so make sure you join our closed Facebook group “Racing Club’s Late Mail” for the trainers’ full range of exclusive racing tips, straight from the horse’s mouth!
“I THINK THIS HORSE IS SET TO RACE WELL FRESH OFF TWO NICE TRIALS.”
SUNSHINE COAST (SATURDAY)
Smart Meteor (26.00, 7.00)
Race 5, 1400m
Smart Meteor is first up but it’s a nice race for him, 1400m.
I think he races well at Caloundra, the rating 75 is well within his range, I think this horse is set to race well fresh off two nice trials.
We’ll go to 1400m, he’s had a nice foundation, I’m sure he’ll give us a good sight.
CHRIS’ TIP: SMART METEOR (26.00, 7.00) (EACH WAY)
“I’M PRETTY SURE NOW SHE’S FIT AND HARD AND READY TO GO, SHE CAN FIGURE IN THE FINISH HERE.”
Vanna Girl (21.00, 6.00)
Race 8, 2000m
We’ve got Vanna Girl in the Ballarat Cup, 55.5kg, Zac Spain to ride.
Zac is in good form I believe, barrier 2 perfect barrier, she’s going to get a lovely run behind them.
I loved her run at Flemington the other day in the Matriarch where she finished just behind them and didn’t get beat by far.
I’m pretty sure now she’s fit and hard and ready to go, she can figure in the finish here.
Big field though, just needs a little bit of luck navigating through traffic but she’ll be right in the finish and give her a great place there at good odds.
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“THE WILLIAMS/PIKE/PETERS COMBINATION WILL BE SHOOTING FOR A FOURTH CONSECUTIVE WIN IN THIS EVENT AND APPEAR TO HOLD ALL THE ACES WITH WESTERN EMPIRE.”
Railway Stakes, 1600m
And so on to the first of the WA features, which have had some of the gloss taken off them this year following restrictions that will prevent any interstate-trained horses from taking part.
The Williams/Pike/Peters combination will be shooting for a fourth consecutive win in this event and appear to hold all the aces with Western Empire (1.70) (in below tweet)who, like Regal Power back in 2019, won the Derby in the autumn on route to this.
Given a favourable steer by The Wizard, the bay was an utterly dominant winner of the Asian Beau Stakes three weeks ago, putting paid to the rest of the field at the furlong mark with a burst of acceleration before being eased right down to win by two lengths.
In on the minimum with 53kgs, hard to see how the likes of Notorious One (13.00), Platoon (81.00) and Kissonallforcheeks (12.00) (in below tweet)could reverse that result, although the latter did bounce back to win at Group 3 level here last weekend.
Indeed, our traders are as good as convinced that the favourite can’t be beaten and have paid out in full on any bets placed prior to the declaration of the final field in a magnanimous gesture of goodwill.
Rhys Radford was the last trainer to overcome the powerhouse of WA racing when successful with Great Shot back in 2017 and he would be hopeful of pulling another surprise with Comfort Me (21.00), an emerging force who has done everything asked of him against inferior opposition of late and deserves a shot at the big boys.
His task wasn’t made any easier after the barrier draw pitched him one off the outside and get the impression it has all come a bit too soon for him.
Massimo (12.00) has thrived since a switch of stables at the start of spring and put paid to a well-credentialled field in the Lee Steere Stakes to round off his preparation.
He’ll push forward once again and looks the main quinella hope for mine.
Topweight Valour Road (23.00) is being tried over the longer trips and steps out to a mile for the first time having contested the Winterbottom 12 months ago.
He was solid behind Massimo last start but has the job ahead here from the outside with the field also containing former Kingston Town Classic winner Kay Cee (34.00) (in above tweet)and multiple black-type winner Dance Music (41.00).
Kembla Grange, NSW
Race 8, 1600m
One of four runners for Chris Waller, Atishu (6.50) (in below tweet) had some excuses in the Golden Eagle having butchered the start and found herself four-back the fence, before running into a few dead-ends in the straight and going to the line somewhat untested.
Thought her run in the Epsom was really good prior to that, beaten less than two lengths having done some work early and the draw should allow her to settle in the first three or four here, with the rain forecast for raceday also likely to prove beneficial.
She was a notable mover in betting when markets were first released on Wednesday and feel she can bounce back hard here.
The stable will also be represented by Reloaded (31.00), Nudge (19.00) and Aramayo (7.50), who ran a great race in the Epsom but has to shoulder an extra 6kgs on Saturday.
Connections of Count de Rupee (3.50) (in below tweet) must be cursing their luck with the bay deprived of a hefty payday in the Golden Eagle after being bloused late by I’m Thunderstruck.
No knock on him and he’s sure to have plenty of support on his home circuit where he races well but this is his first crack at the mile and current prices make little appeal given the draw and the prospect of being trapped wide throughout.
Criaderas (19.00) missed a run in the Hunter last week and will tackle this instead.
The draw is largely irrelevant as he will get back anyway and look for him to be charging home under the lighter weight while Rich Hips (12.00) brings winning form from Flemington on Cup day but has struggled going the other way in the past and can be a hard horse to catch.
From The Traders’ Desk Saturday Racing November 20 Ascot Tips
“BAD LUCK IN RUNNING LOOKS HIS MAIN OPPONENT.”
RAILWAY STAKES – Ascot Race 8 #16 Western Empire (1.70)
One of the shortest priced Railway faves in recent times.
The 4yo Williams team star backed up his WA Derby winning prep last time in work with an explosive demolition of his rivals in the Group 3 Asian Beau first up.
Has the ability to settle close from the gate and with the 53kg and W Pike only needs clear running to salute in Perth’s biggest race.
Bad luck in running looks his main opponent.
WA GUINEAS – Ascot Race 7 #10 Buzzoom (4.40)
White hot combo of Chris Parnham and Dan Morton will look to spoil the cerise and white party.
Will be ridden cold from the gate and this will allow it to show a devastating turn of foot.
Parnham will look to track the fave in the run and have the last shot at them.
BEST – Ascot Race 3 #1 Brave Angel (3.00)
Has the right formlines for this and should have too much class.
Looks to peak 3rd up here for the 1800m and has won at the trip prior.
If Carbery can get it in a midfield trail position for the in-form Miller camp, then it should be curtains when the whips are cracking.
VALUE – Ascot Race 9 #6 Sheza Chalmer (7.50)
In a high quality open affair, this mare has always show above average ability.
Will have to give some of these a start after drawing a sticky gate but tends to go even better when allowed to be ridden cold and let rip down the outside.
LAY – Ascot Race 7 #13 Treasured Star (2.70)
Huge wrap on this 3yo filly with some comparisons drawn to the great mare Arcadia Queen.
Beat the older horses starts back but was only an average field and then found plenty of trouble in the Burgess Queen.
The interference was slightly overplayed as she was only fair when out.
Blinkers go on to sharpen her up but this is a hot field and Pike will need to be at his best.
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